Italy has failed to qualify for 2 of the last 3 World Cups. That fact alone tells you everything you need to know about where this program stands as we head into March 2026. The Azzurri are back in the playoffs for a 3rd consecutive cycle, still unable to secure automatic qualification from a European group, and still relying on a short knockout format to book their seat at the tournament.
The squad has talent, a new manager who played in and won a World Cup, and a country that wants to see its team on the pitch in North America this summer. Talent does not always produce results, and Italy’s recent track record gives reason to keep expectations measured.
How Italy Ended Up Here Again
Norway topped Group I and qualified automatically. Italy finished 2nd, earning a spot in the UEFA playoff bracket for a 3rd straight qualifying campaign. The group stage was rough in stretches.
A 3-0 loss to Norway in the opening qualifier prompted the Italian Football Federation to fire Luciano Spalletti in June 2025 and bring in Gennaro Gattuso as head coach. Gattuso’s first match in charge was a 5-0 win against Estonia on September 5, a comfortable scoreline that calmed some nerves.
The optimism did not last long. Italy lost 4-1 at home to Norway in November, and by then the playoff route had been confirmed.
The pattern is familiar. Italy qualified for Euro 2024 through the playoffs. They missed the 2022 World Cup after losing to North Macedonia. The team keeps ending up in these high-pressure, low-margin knockout rounds because their group-stage performances have been inconsistent for years.
The Playoff Path to North America
Italy’s route has 2 legs. On March 26, Gattuso’s side hosts Northern Ireland in Bergamo in a single-match semifinal. If they win that, they travel away on March 31 to face either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina for the final qualifying spot.
Italy is favored on Oddschecker at 4/5 to win Path A, and the bookmakers price them at 1.53 to reach the World Cup. Those are short odds, but given that Italy lost to North Macedonia in a similar situation 4 years ago, the market price feels reasonable rather than generous.
Northern Ireland at home should be the easier of the 2 fixtures. The away final, against Wales or Bosnia, introduces uncertainty. Both of those sides are capable of producing difficult games in front of their own supporters.
The Verratti Question and Midfield Depth
Reports from February 2026 say that Gattuso and Gianluigi Buffon have met with Marco Verratti to discuss a potential return to the national team for the playoff campaign. Italy has lacked a controlling presence in midfield since Verratti and Jorginho were regulars in the side, and Gattuso appears to want that type of player available for March.
The current midfield group includes Sandro Tonali, Niccolò Barella, Davide Frattesi, Manuel Locatelli, Samuele Ricci, and Nicolò Rovella. That is a strong set of players, but none of them replicate what Verratti does with the ball at his feet. He reads space differently and dictates tempo in ways the current options do not. Bringing him back for 2 matches would be a targeted decision rather than a long-term overhaul of the squad.
What Happens If They Qualify?
Should Italy get through, they land in Group B with Canada, Qatar, and Switzerland. DraftKings lists Switzerland at +140 to advance from that group, with Italy at +230 and Canada at +450. The Swiss are expected to top the group, and Italy would fight for 2nd place.
Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup and exited in the group stage despite home advantage. Canada qualified for the 2022 tournament, but lost all 3 matches. Switzerland is the strongest opponent, but none of these teams are at the level of Spain, France, or Argentina.
Betting Markets for Italy’s Playoff Run
Bookmakers have set Italy’s odds to qualify at 1.53, and their World Cup winner price sits around +3300 at BetMGM and +3000 on DraftKings. For anyone placing wagers on the playoff path or outright markets, sportsbooks’ promotional offers can reduce the cost. Signing up with new accounts, using a Bet365 bonus code, or claiming DraftKings welcome credits are common ways to lower your outlay on these long-shot bets.
Italy at +3300 is a steep price, but the playoff odds at 4/5 on Oddschecker present a tighter market worth watching.
Retegui and Kean as Gattuso’s Attacking Answer
Gattuso has leaned on a 2-man attack since taking over, and the partnership between Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean has been the most encouraging development of his tenure. Retegui scored twice in the 5-0 win over Estonia on Gattuso’s debut in September and has been the clear first-choice striker since.
Italy scored 16 goals in Gattuso’s first 4 matches in charge, a rate that Spalletti never came close to producing. Goals have not been the problem under the new manager. The problem has been what happens when the opposition scores first.
Gattuso addressed the issue in November. “The problem is not tactical,” he said. “Right now, we must work on our fragility. When we do things right, we are competitive.” That fragility was on full display in the 4-1 loss to Norway at San Siro. Italy looked capable of dismantling weaker sides but folded against a team that pressed them with intent. Northern Ireland will not press as much as Norway, but Wales or Bosnia might in an away final.
Can Italy Actually Win It?
Italy at +3300 is priced where a team with their recent record belongs. Spain leads the outright market at +400. England sits at +550, France at +700, and both Brazil and Argentina are at +800.
Italy is far behind those teams in the betting, and there are reasons for that gap. They have not looked like a top-tier international side for several years.
Italy won Euro 2020 when few expected them to, and the 2006 World Cup team was not heavily backed beforehand. The price is long because the probability is low. That does not make it impossible.
Final Assessment
Italy will probably qualify. The playoff path favors them on paper, and the bookmakers agree. Winning the tournament is a separate question. The squad has quality in midfield and a manager with an aggressive mentality, but the defense and finishing have been inconsistent under every recent coaching appointment.
Getting to the World Cup is step 1. Everything after that depends on how quickly Gattuso can build something cohesive from the group he has available.
