Ten years is a long time in life, but in soccer, it’s an absolute eternity.
Check out the English Premier League table in 2013/14 for evidence of that. Okay, so Manchester City were crowned champions – some things never change, but you had the likes of Everton finishing inside the top six, Stoke City and Swansea City comfortably in mid-table, and Hull City and West Brom safe from relegation.
That latter quartet have since been relegated to the Championship, where they have been joined by Southampton – eighth in the Premier League in 2013/14.
How times have changed for one of English soccer’s perennial underdogs…
Saints March On
The Championship odds at the business end of the 2023/24 season make Southampton a +170 chance to secure promotion back to the Premier League.
That’s in line with the preseason football tips, which had the Saints as fourth favorites behind Leicester City, Leeds United, and Middlesbrough.
Leicester have since secured the title, while surprise package Ipswich Town are – barring one of soccer’s minor miracles – set to join the Foxes back in the top flight.
Ipswich Town are on the verge of promotion to the Premier League
Just one game to go!#BBCEFL pic.twitter.com/h7w4b3GiBl
— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) April 30, 2024
Leeds will finish in the playoff places if they don’t pip Ipswich to the post, while Southampton will also contest the playoffs, having finished in fourth place.
Those preseason expectations have largely been met then, although Southampton supporters will be left feeling disappointed if they are unable to complete their expected promotion push.
And those with long memories will be hoping that the anniversary of that fine 2013/14 campaign will somehow provide inspiration…
Playing the Percentages
If nothing else, you can’t accuse the Saints of not providing their supporters with value for money this season.
Their opening 45 Championship games saw a remarkable 147 goals scored – 85 for Southampton and 62 for their opponents.
Those numbers are so stark that the Saints season requires little in the way of analysis: they have been outstanding in the attacking phase of their game, but way below par when it comes to defending their own goal.
That said, when you inspect the Expected Goal (xG) data, the plot thickens. Southampton’s xG against column reads 49.3 after 45 games, suggesting that they ought to have conceded fewer goals than they actually have – shipping from long-range potshots or goals that might best be described as ‘unfortunate’.
If some of those goals hadn’t been conceded in an unfortunate fashion, Southampton might have gotten a whole lot closer to the automatic promotion places than they are now.
— Ché Adams (@CheAdams_) April 13, 2024
As it is, the Saints can head into the playoffs with the confidence that comes from scoring at a rate of nearly two goals per game. Adam Armstrong and Che Adams have blasted 36 (and counting) between them, with the former’s 13 assists taking his goal involvement tally to 33 for the season – a remarkable effort from a player ready to return to Premier League level.
But will that be with Southampton? They’ll need to battle through the dreaded playoffs if that’s to be the case, and having lost three games in a row at the end of April, they’ve also been shorn of momentum.
So can the Saints march on back to the Premier League?
