We all make mistakes when we start punting; it’s natural. One thing you need to know about punting is that it’s constantly improving with every season. It doesn’t matter how successful your last bet was; you still need to analyse your strategy, look for errors, and determine where to improve. Every race is unique, and while research and the odds indicate a potential outcome, anything can happen. So, you need to be flexible and ready to change. If you want to improve your punting skills, here are some mistakes to avoid when conducting a form analysis.
1. Assuming favourites are of poor value
Punters naturally tend to assume that the smaller the price is on a horse, the less value betting on that horse has. More specifically, they think that the favourite in the race is generally under the odds and not worth betting on. But, when it comes to punting, the value or potential of a bet isn’t determined by how much the horse is worth in the current market; it’s calculated based on that horse’s chances of winning the race. So, don’t assume a horse is down and out just because they aren’t worth as much as others on the market.
2. Avoiding big weights
Weight is a foundation for the handicapping system in races and has been used for several decades as a component in analysing form for punters for just as long. Like many other factors, weight contributes to the horse’s overall performance, but it can’t be considered by itself. It’s only one of the factors that could influence the outcome of the race; many other factors could equally affect the results. Consider all the variables when betting on horses, not only their weight.
3. Not betting on horses with wide barriers
If you’re new to punting, it might seem natural to expect the horses with the wide barrier to be at a disadvantage. You may even hear from racing previews on how the wide barrier can be risky to bet on. But, you must remember that every race is unique, and sometimes horses placed on the wide barrier place quite well. It also depends on which track they are on.
You also need to remember that the market has a bias to the inside lane because it’s renowned for giving the horse the upper hand, making the outside a more profitable bet if your horse wins. There are a lot of variables that impact a horse’s performance when given the wide barrier.
For example, they may start off slow, forcing them to settle back wide. In this case, you wouldn’t want to bet on them. However, horses that start with a good pace could cross over to the inside lanes if they can get ahead before the first corner. Likewise, if the home stretch is long, horses stuck wide may be able to close the gap when they hit the straight. Neglecting the wide barrier could result in losing a lucrative betting opportunity.
4. Always going for certainty with bets
At its core, punting is a game of chance. While you may be able to research and partially predict the outcome of a race, you’re constantly deciding on incomplete information, which is where the risk lies. Unfortunately, some punters take things to the extreme by seeing any uncertainty as a risk, causing them to not place their bet. Betting is about making calculated risks, as there will never be 100% certainty on the outcome of a race. So, don’t let the idea of uncertainty stop you from betting on what could otherwise be a lucrative bet.
On the other hand, don’t let your confidence in a certain bet blind you to the possibility that you could also lose it. Horse races can change instantly, and you need to factor that into your strategy.
Where to find up-to-date information on horse racing
As we said at the start of this article, horse racing is only predictable. In most cases, that predictability only comes with solid research. This is why it’s vital to stay up-to-date with all information regarding horse races at Flemington or Randwick races. Ladbrokes offers you all the information you need to make wise betting decisions, helping you create a winning strategy for the season.
Final thoughts
Your ability to analyse the riders and make decisions that result in successful bets is undoubtedly the most important skill that you need to develop as a punter. Learn from the mistakes that others have made and work on your form analysis. It may take time, but in the end, you’ll find that you’re probably winning more than losing.
