Prediction markets, that essentially run a sort of stock trading but in yes/no answers to questions, are gaining ground on the existing online sports betting operators in the US. Although they claim they’re not gambling, some estimates suggest up to 80% of trading on these platforms is now on sports markets. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are the talk-of-the-town in the US sports betting world right now, but they’re stubbornly unavailable to Canadian players. Why is that, and will things change anytime soon?
Well, there are several things that need to change before Canadians will be event-trading in big numbers. That includes regulation and potentially even the law but also cultural changes. However, even if these happen the US market is somewhat uniquely set up for prediction markets to succeed in a way that Canada is not. On the other hand the big platforms have heavyweight political and financial backing, so few would bet against their continued growth. This, is what you need to know about the situation.
There’s Big Momentum for Prediction Markets Globally
Well, there’s certainly a lot of money on the line. Prediction markets have seen their total trading volume grow by 130% in the past two years. Monthly trading at US-based Kalshi now hits $10 plus billion a month. Wall Street firms are hiring prediction market teams, and they’re backed by key figures in the current US administration.
This huge growth is partly because, as well as allowing markets on memeable, fast moving events in an increasingly social media world, they’re now essentially sports betting that’s legal in every American state. Even sports betting market leaders DraftKings and FanDuel have recently, and a little belatedly, launched their own prediction markets.
For now though, at least Canadian players can wager on sports or gamble online in other ways. C’est la vie. If you’re looking for an online Casino in Quebec, for example, there are actually so many options it’s essential to check an expert comparison site before you jump in. The can help you identify the top competitors that are worth your time, across a range of factors from game selection to bonuses and banking.
In the US Kalshi recently reported its busiest ever week of NFL trading volume, while shares in major sportsbooks have been on a steady decline. Polymarket recently did a deal with The Golden Globe awards for live broadcast displayed prediction odds, and Kalshi recently brokered a deal with major television broadcaster CNBC. Culturally, they’re having a moment in the US. But, this doesn’t seem to have extended across the border to Canada.
They’re Essentially Banned in Canada – for Now
So why not? Well, despite people globally using them to put money on the results of Canadian elections or NHL matches, there are four main reasons prediction markets are not huge in Canada right now:
- The more measured approach to adopting legal sports betting – across the public and regulatorily
- The Canadian government and politicians’ general opposition to them
- Recent political tension with the US, with some cultural divergence as a consequence
- Canada’s long held strong stance on binary options trading, which is very similar to what prediction markets offer
While some investors see the US as encouraging new areas of financial innovations with the administration’s bullish stance on prediction markets and crypto, others are more cautious. Various prediction markets connections to the family of President Trump have worked well for them in the current US climate but given Trump’s less than positive comments about Canada throughout 2025 this is not a plus for the Canadian market.
While some firms have launched prediction markets in Canada, many of them have been of limited scope. For example, Interactive Brokers launched in 2025 but did not include sports contracts, election betting or some other high risk markets.
What Could the Future Hold for Prediction Markets in Canada and Beyond
Although the main platforms are currently showing explosive growth in the US, it is far from certain if this will continue. While the federal administration, courts and even Wall Street have been encouraging, state governments have been pushing back. Ten states have made formal complaints against various prediction markets so far, although no state has yet clarified the rules with an outright ban.
On the other hand, if prediction markets continue to become part of the global financial system then Canadian regulators may be forced to cede ground on this issue. The government could choose to regulate them, or let provinces do so, or just stop their opposition and accept the market’s claims they’re not exactly gambling.
Maybe there will be an audience? Canadians do enjoy sports betting almost as much as Americans. However, the market in Ontario especially is very crowded – and other provinces have one solitary provincial platform to use.
A potential alternative are platforms like PredictIt, which use the prediction market model as a form of political and public polling and only take small stakes. One of the initial selling points of prediction markets was that they’re useful for polling research because people are more honest when they have to put money down. PredictIt recently came to a deal with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to increase the stakes and scope of its political markets.
Canada could license a service like PredictIt to concede this argument, while standing firm on wider access to other platforms.
