As I’m writing this, the Major League Baseball playoff games are heating up and there’s plenty of excitement to look forward to in the MLB! Could we see the Dodgers get a chance to defend their title? Or could we see the Seattle Mariners win their first ever World Series?
Whoever takes the win, I know for certain that I’ll be glued to my television screen! I also like to enhance my viewing experience by betting on my favorite MLB team. I understand that things can get a little confusing with words such as moneyline and prop flying about, so I’ve developed this quick guide to get you started with MLB betting.
How to Tell Your Moneyline from Your Prop
Before you can even start thinking about which team to back to baseball, it’s essential to understand the different types of bets. Things can be a little overwhelming at first, so let me walk you through the basics.
Why Do Odds Look Like That?
Here in the US, our odds for things such as spread bets are displayed -5 (-200), where the first number represents the projected point difference between the two teams and the second symbolizes the price.
Say you’re betting on the Mets versus the Yankees and you think the Mets will win. In MLB, a common run line is 1.5 runs, meaning the favorite would have to win the game by at least 2 runs to win your bet. In this example, if the Mets are the favored team, the run line would be displayed as -1.5.Although it’s a minus, you actually have the Mets as favorites and as long as they win by two or more runs, you’ll see a payout. The -200 means that you’ll have to spend $200 to have a chance of winning $100.
Starting Simple with Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets wager on the outcome of a game, regardless of the final score, and are pretty straightforward to place; the real hard work is determining which team you want to back. If you think the Yankees will triumph over the Mets, and they’re already -110 favorites, then you’ll have to wager $110 for a $100 return.
Pushing the Boat Out with Prop Bets
If you’re ready for things to get a little more complicated, then prop bets are a great next step. Rather than looking at the result of a game, you wager on the likelihood of an event happening, such as Shohei Ohtani hitting a home run against the Giants or Tylner Glasnow pitching a shutout against the Rockies.
I’d say props are probably the most popular bet in the MLB because you can wager on just about anything! They can be displayed as a yes or no question such as “Will Ohtani homer against the Giants?” Or, they can be an over/under on something happening, such as Ohtani over 2.5 total bases in the game.
Entering the World of Numbers with Run Lines
Another popular bet type is the run line, where you place a wager on what you think the winning margin will be between two teams. As mentioned before, the typical run line in an MLB game is always -1.5, and what is variable is the odds. So, for example, a bigger favorite may be listed as -1.5 (-140), while the favorite in a tightly-contested game might be listed as -1.5 (+150).
Total Bets on the Bigger Picture
You can also place a total bet on the MLB, which is a wager on how many runs you think will be scored by both teams combined. Say you think the Dodgers and Reds are going to put on a homer fest, then you should place a bet on over the total. The total runs will often hover around 9.5 or so, and you choose whether you think the total runs scored by both teams will be more (over) or less (under) that.
It’s also possible to place total bets on individual players and for an extended amount of time; I’ll combine them both for our example and say ‘Pete Alonso will score more than 30 runs in the regular season’.
Parlays as Combo Bets
If you want to add another layer of suspense to your MLB betting, then you can combine different bets for a parlay. Each different wager in a parlay is referred to as a leg, and all of them will have to win for you to see any returns.
Say you think Ohtani will homer against the Reds, you think Glasnow will record eight strikeouts and you think the Dodgers will beat the Reds – you can roll all of these together to create a parlay. Since more will have to go your way for you to win, parlays have longer odds and the potential for greater returns. However, keep in mind that every leg has to win for your parlay to win.
Place Your Bets
It can be a real struggle to choose the best MLB sportsbook on the market, so many players turn to the leading comparison site, WSN.com, to do it for them. They have a dedicated MLB section to make your life easier and have spent over 12,000 hours comparing sportsbooks across things like odds, bonuses, customer service and payment methods, so you’re only choosing from the best. If you’re struggling to know which is your best bet, then check out the content from their experienced experts like Tanner Kern and Michael Savio.
How to Tell Which Bets Are Likely to Be a Home Run
One of the most important things to do when you strike out into the world of MLB betting is your research! If you’re not familiar with baseball, then you need to get to understand the game before you start placing blind bets on it. Watch a couple of games and look at the statistics behind the teams you’re betting on.
Getting to Know the Format
There’s two leagues in the MLB – the National League and the American League – both of which contain three divisions divided by location (East, West and Central). The American League also features the only team not from America in the Toronto Blue Jays! All teams eventually play each other throughout the 162 games a season before the best teams continue on into the playoffs.
The top two teams from each of the two leagues automatically go through to the Division Round of the playoffs, while the teams from third to sixth enter into the playoffs in the Wild Card. The team who finished second in the league will play the winner of the match between the sixth and third place teams; the overall league leader will end up playing the winner of the match between the fourth and fifth seeded teams. Although the format can be a real head-scratcher at first, it’s important to be familiar with how it works before you start betting!
It’s All in the Numbers
Baseball is a game about numbers and there’s a statistic for almost everything that happens in a game. Before you place a bet, check out the stats for important players such as the starting pitcher. Wins above replacement is my go-to number to check, as it indicates the overall worth of a player, contrasting the production of that player to a league-average replacement.
I also look at WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched) which indicates how many baserunners a pitcher is likely to allow in a game, which leads to more chances for the offense to score runs. I also check out other stats such as strikeouts per-nine-innings, earned run average, and shutouts.
When you build an overall picture of the proficiency of a pitcher, you can compare it to the batting side they’re facing to determine your best bet. If a team is fielding a weak batting offense, and a pitcher is putting in strong stats, you could place a prop bet on them to get 10 or more strikeouts.
Know Your Limits
The most important thing to think about when you’re trying out betting on any sport is responsible gambling.Everyone should know their limits before they start betting and make sure to stick to them so they can stay in control of their behavior.
Let’s take a quick look at the different tools available:
Deposit Limits
These control how much you can spend at a provider by placing a maximum you can deposit over a set period (e.g. $10 a week).
Loss Limits
Loss limits are similarly financially focused with bettors able to set how much they’d be comfortable losing over a set period of time.
Session Limits
Session limits aim to control gambling activity by capping how long bettors can spend at a provider.
Breaks and Self-Exclusion
There’s more permanent solutions available to anyone struggling with their relationship with gambling. Self-exclusion is one such tool; it prevents bettors from accessing a site for a set amount of time between a few months and years. Breaks are very similar, just for shorter bursts such as a few days or a week.
What Should You Remember When Starting to Bet on the MLB?
When you’re first looking into betting on the MLB, things such as odds and the confusing playoff format can be a bit off-putting. If you’re a complete novice, take some time to familiarize yourself with how the sport and sports betting works; watching the playoffs is a great introduction to the MLB as you get to see the top teams compete in a packed schedule.
If you want to bet on something that isn’t a moneyline, you need to get pretty comfortable with stats, so take a look at how the pitchers and batters for each team compare. I’ll leave you with the most important message of the article: always make sure that you’re setting and sticking to your limits and gambling responsibly!
