The Detroit Lions kick-off their NFL play-off campaign at home to Washington Commanders this weekend and they are favourites to progress to the NFC Championship game.
The Lions also top the latest Super Bowl betting ahead of reigning champions Kansas City Chiefs after posting an impressive 15-2 record during the regular season.
However, while plenty of punters have been backing Dan Campbell’s side to be crowned NFL champions, there are several reasons why their campaign could end in disappointment.
Read on as we look at the key factors which make the Lions a risky betting proposition and why the Chiefs will claim a historic third consecutive Super Bowl.
Injuries Could Catch Up With The Lions
The Lions battled with injuries throughout the regular season but found ways to ensure they did not impact their bid to win the NFC North title.
Their defensive unit was hit particularly hard, with Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, Alim McNeill and Carlton Davis III among the players sidelined.
Despite this, the Lions still managed to record a franchise record of 15 regular season wins, equalling the tally garnered by the Chiefs.
Injury issues have handed opportunities to other players, who have stepped manfully into the breach and grabbed their chances with both hands.
However, their penchant for picking up injuries makes them a risky proposition from a betting perspective during the cut and thrust of the NFL playoffs.
Pass-Rush And Cornerbacks Could Be Exposed
Detroit have struggled with the pass-rush for most of the season, while their cornerbacks have not been operating at the level of potential Super Bowl winners.
Intriguingly, Hutchinson played just five games this season before fracturing his fibula and tibia against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6 but still finished with a team-high 7.5 sacks.
Trade deadline signing Za’Darius Smith managed four sacks in eight games but may struggle to maintain those numbers during the play-offs.
The Lions’ cornerbacks have also been underwhelming, with most of the group struggling to perform consistently throughout the regular season.
Facing better teams in post-season showdowns will accentuate the Lions’ weaknesses and could scupper their hopes of winning the Super Bowl for the first time.
The Chiefs Know How To Win Tight Games
The points differential statistics for the 2024 regular season paint an intriguing picture, with the Lions dominating the Chiefs in that metric.
The Lions posted a season best plus-222 differential – a mind-blowing 163 points more than the differential garnered by the Chiefs from their 17 games.
However, an argument can be made to say that the Chiefs’ 59-point differential on their way to the same 15-2 record as the Lions is actually more impressive.
It highlights that they know how to win tight games, which is generally a crucial attribute to possess when the NFL season reaches the business end.
Teams tend to learn more about themselves when they have to dig deep to win games, and this factor should serve the Chiefs well in their bid to claim a third consecutive Super Bowl title.
Super Bowl LIX – Outright Betting
The latest Super Bowl betting (via Betway) is as follows:
- Detroit Lions – 11/4
- Kansas City Chiefs – 33/10
- Philadelphia Eagles – 4/1
- Baltimore Ravens – 9/2
- Buffalo Bills – 11/2
- Los Angeles Rams – 15/1
- Washington Commanders – 30/1
- Houston Texans – 50/1
